Paris Olympics Tennis:
There will be men’s and women’s doubles tournaments, as well as mixed doubles, played at the 2024 Summer Olympics. However, the main attraction for tennis will be the men’s and women’s singles events.
We’ll see two 64-player tournaments to determine who will go home with gold, silver and bronze medals. Both tournaments will follow a best-of-three format, and all sets will be played with traditional seven-point tiebreakers (if necessary). To make matters better, the event will take place at Roland Garros. That means the top players in the world will be competing for their countries on one of the grandest stages in tennis: Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Men’s Tennis
Top Contenders
Carlos Alcaraz (+190)
Novak Djokovic (+275)
Jannik Sinner (+275)
This is the same group of contenders as every big tennis tournament. The new “Big Three” is responsible for the last eight Grand Slam titles. These three are surface-proof and are threats to win every time they step on a tennis court. That won’t be any different in Paris.
Alcaraz, who is representing Spain, won the French Open in June. That was an event played at this very venue, so he’ll come into this thing feeling like it’s his to lose. Alcaraz has the highest clay-court Elo rating of anybody in the men’s game right now, and his game is a perfect match for these conditions. Alcaraz is the fastest player on the planet, so it’s hard to get the ball by him on slower courts. He also has the ability to hit every shot in the book, but he’s especially strong when it comes to utilizing topspin. Combining that with his all-world baseline power and uncanny variety makes it understandable he’s the favorite.
Djokovic has had an up-and-down 2024 season, but he has won three majors at Roland Garros. The 24-time Grand Slam champion also happened to find his game at Wimbledon, looking as sharp as he has all year long. Djokovic might be 37 years old, but he keeps himself in tremendous shape. And his best level is capable of winning on any given day. Djokovic is precise with his serve; he’s one of the best returners of all time, and he’s arguably the most well-rounded baseline player in the history of the sport. Djokovic is also elite at the net. Not only does Djokovic have the game to win gold, but he also has the motivation. Nobody in the history of tennis has a better resume than Djokovic, but he has never won gold for Serbia. He’ll be eager to change that.
Sinner is the world No. 1 and has been the best player in tennis for most of 2024. And while clay-court success has eluded the Italian a bit, he has shown that he is very dangerous on this surface. Sinner nearly beat Alcaraz in the French Open semifinals, but he started to cramp up and really tailed off late in the match. That shouldn’t be much of a concern in best-of-three tennis. Sinner was actually one of the sharpest players on the ATP Tour early in the clay-court season, as he was able to serve through the conditions and bully people from the baseline. Sinner has also expanded his game to include some more spin, drop shots and net play. With that in mind, he’ll be very live to take home the gold here.
Dark Horse
Casper Ruud (12-1)
Ruud suffered an early exit at Wimbledon, and people were quick to clown him for that, but he’s a two-time French Open runner-up and loves to play on clay. Ruud has the third-highest raw clay-court Elo rating in the men’s game, and he has won more matches than everybody but Sebastian Baez on this surface over the last 52 weeks. Ruud also had a real shot at making a third French Open final in a row this year, but he was dealing with an illness in his loss to Alexander Zverev in the semis. If he was healthy, he might have won that match. Ruud took the first set and looked like he was going to cruise to a victory.
Ruud’s game is just hard to beat in slower conditions, as he’s a solid server, hits powerful, topspin-heavy shots from the baseline and maneuvers himself around the court at an elite level. So, don’t rule him out when trying to figure out who will win the gold. Ruud just might sneak up on you and take it home for Norway.
Pick To Win
Rafael Nadal (10-1)
It’s entirely possible that people will write Nadal off after his opening-round loss to Zverev at the French Open. However, I think Nadal represents the best value on the board in this tournament. The Spaniard skipped Wimbledon to focus solely on clay-court tennis, and he has been doing everything he can to get his body right. Well, if he’s able to avoid a setback, that should do him wonders. As the 14-time French Open champion gets further and further from the hip injury that derailed his 2023 season —and the start of his 2024 season —he should look more like a top-10 player. That said, don’t write off the King of Clay.
Nadal, who won a gold medal in 2008, is 112-4 in his French Open career. He has just been unbeatable in this venue. I know Father Time is coming for the 38-year-old, but Nadal hasn’t demanded much from his body in recent months. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a best-of-three tournament. Physically, he should be able to handle a deep run in a tournament with shorter matches.
Nadal will just need to find a way to keep things together on his serve. He still has an impressive baseline game, where he now goes a bit bigger to find winners because he can’t regularly grind out long rallies anymore. He’s also capable of getting into his opponent’s service games quite frequently. So, if he can rack up holds, he’s going to be as tough of an out as anyone. Nadal is going to give this tournament absolutely everything he has left.
Realistically, the winner will probably come from the group of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner. But I don’t like the odds enough to back any of them in a tournament that could get a little wonky. I’d rather take a shot here.
Women’s Tennis
Top Contenders
Iga Swiatek (-180)
It really only makes sense to list Swiatek here. Swiatek, who won the 2024 French Open and has now won four titles at Roland Garros, has a career record of 35-2 at this venue. She’s also 84-10 on clay at the WTA level, in general. Swiatek is a good spot server, a relentless returner and is absolutely impenetrable as a baseline player. She gets everything back and then turns defense into offense with her vicious backhand and topspin-heavy forehand. Poland isn’t expected to be much of a factor in the Olympic Games, but Swiatek makes her country extremely relevant on the red clay.
Dark Horse
Barbora Krejcikova (50-1)
Krejcikova was a forgotten woman before putting herself back on the map at Wimbledon. The 28-year-old is a former world No. 2 and she clearly has the ability to be a top-five player again. She just needs to find a way to stay healthy, which has been difficult over the last few seasons. But now that Krejcikova is on the court and feeling good physically, there’s no reason she can’t make some noise in the Olympic Games.
The Czech star won the French Open in 2021 and really enjoys playing in slower conditions. Krejcikova can throw opponents off with her ability to utilize slice, and she’s also just extremely precise with her groundstrokes. Nothing about her game will absolutely wow you, but she’s solid in every regard and really understands match psychology. I’d say she’s a top-five contender to win this tournament, but she’s not being priced anything like that.
Pick To Win
Iga Swiatek (-180)
With Aryna Sabalenka not in the field, it’s just hard to pinpoint a player who can actually beat Swiatek in these conditions. Coco Gauff is the second-highest player on the odds board, but Swiatek has absolutely dominated their head-to-head series. Honestly, the only player in the field that has given Swiatek any trouble is Jelena Ostapenko, who is 4-0 in their four career matchups. But you can’t lay off Swiatek strictly because of Ostapenko’s presence in the draw. If the two were to meet in this tournament, Swiatek would be a big favorite. So, don’t overthink this. It might be a little juicy to back the Pole, but this is the only way you should play the women’s side of things.
