3M Open Predictions and Golf Odds (2024)

3M Open:

Scottie Scheffler is still likely the front-runner for the PGA Tour Player of the Year, but he may have a challenger now as Xander Schauffele (pre-tournament price of 14-1) earned his second major championship of the 2024 season and became the Champion Golfer of the Year this past weekend in the British Open at Royal Troon.

Schauffele carded a 6-under round of 65 on Sunday to win the Claret Jug by two strokes over Justin Rose and 54-hole leader Billy Horschel. He made four birdies in a six-hole stretch on the final nine (Nos. 11, 13, 14 and 16) to essentially put it to bed. The now two-time major winner led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking plus was second for Greens In Regulation.

Rounding out the top 10 were Thriston Lawrence (4th), Russell Henley (5th), 36-hole leader Shane Lowry (6th), Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Sungjae Im, who all tied for seventh, and Matthew Jordan, Adam Scott and first-round leader Daniel Brown, who tied for 10th.

With victories at the PGA Championship and the British Open, Schauffele becomes the first player to win multiple majors in one season since Brooks Koepka (U.S. Open, PGA Championship) in 2018. Furthermore, with Schauffele’s two major victories plus Scheffler’s win at the Masters and Bryson DeChambeau’s U.S. Open victory, American players swept the four majors for the first time since 1982.

We will see Schauffele and Scheffler, along with Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark, leading Team USA to Paris for the Olympic Games in two weeks, but none of them are in this week’s 3M Open field in Minneapolis. With the 3M right before the PGA Tour’s week break for the Olympics and three weeks before the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the field is not all that strong at the top end, but there are some headliners.

Tony Finau (10-1) missed the cut at Royal Troon last weekend but won this event two years ago.

Sam Burns (18-1) shot a 65 on Saturday to be just one stroke off the lead heading into Sunday’s final round at the British Open but shot a 9-over 80 on Sunday to finish T-31.

Akshay Bhatia missed the cut last weekend, but he has had two top-5 finishes in the last month and is knocking on the door for another PGA Tour victory at 22-1 along with Sahith Theegala, who also missed last week’s cut but finished T-4 the week prior at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Luke Clanton (28-1), currently playing collegiately at Florida State, three weeks ago became the first amateur with back-to-back top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour since 1958.

Horschel posted his best career major championship finish with a T-2 at Royal Troon last week. He is priced at 30-1 along with Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge and Keegan Bradley.

Lee Hodges (70-1) won here last year by seven strokes and is back to defend his title while 2021 3M champion Cameron Champ (150-1) is also in this week’s field.

The Field

Ten of the OWGR Top 50 players are in attendance this week in the Twin Cities.

Current 156-player field here.

Current DraftKings odds here.

The Course

TPC Twin Cities is in Blaine, which is 13 miles north of Minneapolis and 20 miles from St. Paul. The track was designed in 2000 by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman. Native Minnesotan PGA Tour players Lehman and Tim Herron along with Steve Wenzloff, PGA Tour VP of Design Services, renovated the layout in 2018. TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour.

The course will be played as a par-71 of 7,431 yards, which is the ninth-longest on the PGA Tour. It is a relatively easy and gettable parklands design with three shorter and drivable par-4s that longer hitters can reach. With three par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here.

The closing 18th is arguably one of the best finishing holes on the tour. The hole doglegs with water on the right in play on both the tee shot and approach if players want to get aggressive with a 220+ yard approach over water to reach in two. Matthew Wolff won in climactic fashion at the inaugural 2019 3M Open, responding to Bryson DeChambeau’s eagle on 18 with an eagle of his own from just off the fringe.

There are 27 water hazards in play over 13 holes (third most on the PGA Tour), so it resembles a bit of a Florida-type layout. While it is a relatively easy course, there is danger lurking with all the water.

In addition, there are 72 bunkers, which were rebuilt and repaired after a heavy storm last September. The fairways (35 yards average width) are constructed of Bentgrass and they will play hard and fast with plenty of rollout. Plus, the course is at around 900 feet altitude (sixth highest elevation on tour), so the ball will fly a bit farther than normal. The rough can be a pesky four-inch Bluegrass/Fescue mix. The greens are large (6,500 square feet) and average speed (12.5 stimpmeter) Pure Bentgrass.

More course information on TPC Twin Cities is provided courtesy of the GCSAA (Golf Course Superintendents Association of America)

PGATOUR.com provides a brief flyover look at TPC Twin Cities

Here is the official scorecard of TPC Twin Cities courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

In 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave an honest description of how they want the 3M Open to play. He was quoted as saying, “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour.”

TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer original design, so here are some other Palmer designs played on the PGA Tour:

• PGA West, Palmer Private — 2008-2015 Career Builder Challenge
• Bay Hill Country Club — Arnold Palmer Invitational
• TPC Boston — Dell Technologies Championship
• Isleworth Golf & Country Club — 2014 Hero World Challenge
• Albany — 2015-2018 Hero World Challenge

Non-Palmer designs that are more direct correlations to TPC Twin Cities include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TPC Summerlin (Shriners Hospitals Open), TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), PGA National (Honda Classic) and PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express).

​3M Open Recent History

2023: Lee Hodges (-24/260); 80-1

2022: Tony Finau (-17/267); 14-1

2021: Cameron Champ (-15/269); 150-1

2020: Michael Thompson (-19/265); 125-1

​2019: Matthew Wolff (-21/263); 175-1

Statistical Analysis

Finau, Champ and Wolff are longer hitters off the tee, but other past champions Hodges and Thompson gained strokes off the tee through accuracy.

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Kevin Dougherty 0.989
2. Cameron Champ 0.883
3. Keith Mitchell 0.790
4. Patrick Fishburn 0.702
5. Jhonattan Vegas 0.694
6. Rico Hoey 0.655
7. Kevin Yu 0.625
8. Alejandro Tosti 0.597
9. Kurt Kitayama 0.408
10. Sam Stevens 0.403
11. Erik van Rooyen 0.402
12. Sahith Theegala 0.401
13. Maverick McNealy 0.395
14. Sam Burns 0.362
15. Joel Dahmen 0.351
16. Austin Eckroat 0.343
17. Hayden Springer 0.335
18. Akshay Bhatia 0.328

Total Driving combines Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank.

Total Driving

1. Jhonattan Vegas 78 (10 + 68)
2. Sam Burns 100 (40 + 60)
3. Rico Hoey 103 (20 + 83)
4. Patrick Fishburn 117 (29 + 88)
5. Austin Eckroat 118 (100 + 18)
6. Keith Mitchell 118 (14 + 104)
7. Akshay Bhatia 122 (93 + 29)
8. Keegan Bradley 123 (57 + 66)
9. Daniel Berger 127 (121 + 6)
10. Hayden Springer 133 (9 + 124)
11. Vincent Norrman 134 (11 + 123)
12. K.H. Lee 135 (76 + 59)
13. Carson Young 137 (127 + 10)
14. Kevin Dougherty 139 (3 + 136)
15. Kevin Yu 139 (18 + 121)
16. Chan Kim 140 (97 + 43)
17. Max Greyserman 143 (14 + 129)
18. Hayden Buckley 145 (113 + 32)

Lee Hodges led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in his victory here last year. Finau was third in the category for 2022, Thompson fourth in 2020 and Wolff second in 2019.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round

1. Tom Hoge 0.911
2. Tony Finau 0.865
3. Keith Mitchell 0.737
4. Doug Ghim 0.585
5. Patton Kizzire 0.557
6. Greyson Sigg 0.549
7. Kevin Yu 0.545
8. Akshay Bhatia 0.494
9. Austin Eckroat 0.473
10. Joel Dahmen 0.454
11. Chan Kim 0.443
12. Chez Reavie 0.440
13. Daniel Berger 0.438
14. Ryan Moore 0.431
15. Dylan Wu 0.429
16. Jhonattan Vegas 0.410
17. Sahith Theegala 0.397
18. Andrew Novak 0.382

Ball Striking is measured by taking Total Driving Rank + Greens In Regulation Rank.

Ball Striking

1. Jhonattan Vegas 4 (2 + 2)
2. Keith Mitchell 20 (14 + 6)
3. Patrick Fishburn 22 (13 + 9)
4. Rico Hoey 38 (8 + 30)
5. Kevin Yu 38 (34 + 4)
6. Daniel Berger 40 (22 + 18)
7. Patton Kizzire 55 (52 + 3)
8. Chan Kim 56 (36 + 20)
9. Lanto Griffin 58 (52 + 6)
10. Kevin Dougherty 59 (34 + 25)
11. Vincent Norrman 60 (26 + 34)
12. Carson Young 75 (31 + 44)
13. Tony Finau 82 (56 + 26)
14. Rafael Campos 83 (50 + 33)
15. Hayden Springer 84 (25 + 59)
16. Doug Ghim 86 (71 + 15)
17. Tom Whitney 86 (43 + 43)
18. Sam Stevens 88 (64 + 24)
19. Henrik Norlander 90 (74 + 16)

TPC Twin Cities has a higher Birdie Or Better Percentage than the average course on the PGA Tour.

Birdie Or Better Percentage

1. Keith Mitchell 25.14%
2. Michael Kim 24.81
3. Tom Hoge 24.75
4. Chan Kim 24.72
5. Hayden Springer 24.70
6. Nick Dunlap 24.44
7. Patton Kizzire 24.39
8. Harry Hall 24.32
9. Erik van Rooyen 24.16
10. Tony Finau 24.13
11. Sam Burns 24.04
12. Sam Ryder 23.94
13. Pierceson Coody 23.90
14. Jacob Bridgeman 23.78
15. Maverick McNealy 23.75
16. Rico Hoey 23.64
17. Trace Crowe 23.61
18. Carson Young 23.61
19. Ryan McCormick 23.51

The three par-5s are all slightly under 600 yards and are not necessarily guaranteed birdies this week.

Par-5 Scoring Average

1. Nick Dunlap 4.46
2. Tony Finau 4.46
3. Beau Hossler 4.47
4. Rico Hoey 4.48
5. Mackenzie Hughes 4.48
6. Keith Mitchell 4.48
7. Jhonattan Vegas 4.49
8. Matt Wallace 4.49
9. Cameron Champ 4.50
10. Kevin Dougherty 4.50
11. Patrick Fishburn 4.50
12. Chan Kim 4.50
13. Henrik Norlander 4.50
14. Callum Tarren 4.50
15. Doug Ghim 4.51
16. S.H. Kim 4.51
17. Hayden Springer 4.51
18. Kevin Yu 4.51

11 of the 18 holes at TPC Twin Cities are par-4s.

Par-4 Scoring

1. Patton Kizzire 3.96
2. Andrew Putnam 3.96
3. Ben Silverman 3.96
4. Ben Griffin 3.97
5. Jacob Bridgeman 3.98
6. Trace Crowe 3.98
7. Ryo Hisatsune 3.98
8. Martin Laird 3.98
9. Maverick McNealy 3.98
10. Keith Mitchell 3.98
11. Doug Ghim 3.99
12. Harry Hall 3.99
13. Tom Hoge 3.99
14. Zach Johnson 3.99
15. Chan Kim 3.99
16. Henrik Norlander 3.99
17. Andrew Novak 3.99
18. Taylor Pendrith 3.99
19. Erik van Rooyen 3.99
20. Jhonattan Vegas 3.99
21. Dylan Wu 3.99
22. Carson Young 3.99

The greens at TPC Twin Cities are some of the smoothest on tour and this event can often turn into a putting contest.

Strokes Gained Bentgrass Putting — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)

1. J.T. Poston 1.14
2. Keegan Bradley 1.06
3. S.H. Kim 0.95
4. Dylan Wu 0.88
5. Harry Hall 0.82
6. Maverick McNealy 0.75
7. Mackenzie Hughes 0.75
8. Adam Hadwin 0.70
9. Ben Taylor 0.65
10. Andrew Novak 0.58
11. Rico Hoey 0.57 (14 rounds)
12. Sam Burns 0.56
13. Nick Dunlap 0.55
14. Kevin Kisner 0.52
15. Beau Hossler 0.51

Stats courtesy of PGATOUR.com

Selections

Keith Mitchell, 35-1

Mitchell has missed three of his last four cuts, but he has also finished fifth here in each of his last two appearances.

He leads this field for Birdie Or Better Percentage and is second for Ball Striking.

Mitchell is sitting 76th in the FedEx Cup standings, and only the top 70 make the playoffs, so he needs a big week here or at the Wyndham in two weeks.

Austin Eckroat, 60-1

Nick Dunlap earned his second PGA Tour victory last week at the Barracuda Championship and Eckroat could perhaps be the next to do so having won the Cognizant Championship earlier this year.

Eckroat has not really contended since that win but made the cut last week in his British Open debut, so he comes in with some momentum.

He ranks top 10 in this field for Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Approach.

Chan Kim, 60-1

Kim turned professional in 2010 and has played on tours around the world but finally earned his PGA Tour card off the Korn Ferry Tour courtesy of two victories and finishing runner-up on the KFT points list.

He has three top-10 finishes this year and sits 97th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Chan Kim ranks fourth in the field for Birdie Or Better Percentage.

Jhonattan Vegas, 90-1

Vegas is still on his Major Medical Extension from shoulder surgery last year (11 starts left on that extension) and is 149th in the FedEx Cup standings and trying to get back into the 125 to keep his card.

He has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last five events and finished runner-up here in 2021.

The Venezuelan leads the PGA Tour this season for Ball Striking.

Kevin Yu, 90-1

Yu has four top-10s in his first full season on the PGA Tour but sits at 86th in the FedEx Cup standings.

The man from Taiwan ranks top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach and Ball Striking.

Patrick Fishburn, 110-1

Fishburn’s third last weekend at the Barracuda is his best PGA Tour finish in his rookie season and put him into the FedEx Cup 125.

One more strong finish would cement him there and he has finished in the top 25 for four of his last five starts.

He ranks in the top 5 in both Total Driving and Ball Striking.

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