Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterSep 8, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
Week 2 of the 2023 college football season is officially "Measuring Stick Week."
So many of the questions we spent all offseason asking, and all of the partial impressions that we formed last week, of both the surprising and unsurprising varieties, now get some level of confirmation. Is Texas actually ready to be "BACK!" this time? Is Alabama's Jalen Milroe as Jalen Hurts-level awesome as he looked against Middle Tennessee? Is Colorado seriously ready to have a couple of different Heisman candidates? Is Oklahoma ready to play top-10 ball again? Is Tulane once again the best of the Group of Five? Is Conner Weigman really a "No. 1 in QBR" candidate? Is Texas State the new UTSA?
This week is perfectly designed to provide some level of clarity, especially down in Tuscaloosa, where one of the most anticipated games of the year kicks off on Saturday evening. Here's everything you need to know and follow on a loaded Week 2. Who measures up?
Jump to a section:
Texas-Alabama | Colorado as the favorite
Tulane's big moment?
Is OU back? |
Best bets | Week 2 playlist
Horns-Tide II
No. 11 Texas at No. 3 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN)
All times Eastern
It was one of the strangest high-profile games of the 2022 season. Texas' Quinn Ewers completed a couple of deep balls (which turned out to be a misleading sample) before getting injured. Hudson Card filled in and nearly led the Longhorns, three-touchdown underdogs, to a massive upset, but Alabama's Bryce Young overcame some line-of-scrimmage disadvantages -- and solidified his "future No. 1 draft pick" status -- to lead the Crimson Tide on a brilliant, late field goal drive and snag a 20-19 win in Austin.
Three hundred sixty-four days later, we get our rematch. Young plays for the Carolina Panthers and Card plays for Purdue, so this year it's Ewers vs. Jalen Milroe. It's also SEC vs. Future SEC.
Texas vs. SEC expectations
The Longhorns head-coaching job is one of the most difficult in college football.
We don't usually think of it that way, of course. Any time someone on the internet ranks jobs, UT inevitably lands at least in the top five. There's plenty of logic to this, of course: The money is immense, the fan base is enormous, the school certainly has all the built-in confidence you could ask for, and its proximity to star recruits is almost unrivaled. But if you think about it, you can find a pretty good indication of the quality of a given job by looking at the record of the program doing the hiring. And Texas has made one genuinely successful hire in 40 years.
David McWilliams (1987-91) and Charlie Strong (2014-16) combined for one winning season in seven years. John Mackovic (1992-97) mostly topped .500, but enjoyed just one top-15 finish in six seasons. Tom Herman (2017-20) had one in four. Steve Sarkisian (2021-present) enters Saturday's game just 14-12 overall at Texas.
Everything we believe about Texas' potential comes from basically two men: Darrell K Royal, after whom Texas' stadium is named, and Mack Brown. Brown is the only modern hire who figured it all out. He maximized recruiting to a level that even other Longhorns coaches haven't been able to match. Far more importantly, he was able to actually keep the boosters mostly happy and keep all the behind-the-scenes arrows pointed in the right direction for a while. Of Texas' eight top-10 finishes in the past 40 years, seven came in a nine-year span from 2001 to '09. The Longhorns played for the national title twice in that run, winning once.
Texas' upside is forever undeniable, but how good can a job really be when almost no one actually wins while holding it? And what kind of success can Texas expect once it moves into an absurdly deep Southeastern Conference in 2024?
You might have to squint a bit, but you can certainly find reasons for hope from Sarkisian. He began his Texas tenure just 7-9, but has gone 7-3 since. All three losses came by a single touchdown and two were to teams that finished in the top 10. But eventually you have to actually beat top-10 teams to consider yourself a top-10 program. That has been an issue.
Since its win over No. 5 Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl -- a victory that prompted Sam Ehlinger's famous "We're baaaaaack" moment -- UT has faced six top-10 opponents. Every single game has been decided by one score, but the Horns have won only one of them.
2019: lost to No. 6 LSU (45-38)
2019: lost to No. 6 Oklahoma (34-27)
2020: defeated No. 6 Oklahoma State (41-34)
2021: lost to No. 6 Oklahoma (55-48)
2022: lost to No. 1 Alabama (20-19)
2022: lost to No. 4 TCU (17-10)
Their only win in this span wasn't proof of their own top-10 bona fides so much as proof of their opponent's lack thereof -- Oklahoma State ended up going just 8-3 in 2020. But almost every one of these games gave us the same "Maybe it's real this time? Ah, no. Well, maybe?... no" impression that the Longhorns have left us since 2010.
Because of how successful it seems this program should be, we never stop reading the tea leaves. We never stop looking for clues that everything is finally coming together. On six different occasions over the past 12 years, including this season, the Longhorns have begun the year ranked higher in the polls than they finished the year before. And in the previous five instances, they failed to live up to the preseason ranking four times. We know how good things might look if they ever come together just right, and we endlessly try to anticipate it. With an upset Saturday night, we wouldn't have to worry about anticipating it anymore.
How good is Quinn Ewers?
One tried-and-true way of pulling an upset: winning the quarterback battle. It looked for a bit as if Texas might do that against Bama last year. For all of Bryce Young's clutch, late play, Ewers' performance early in the game was staggering.
Texas seemingly caught Bama off-guard by attacking the Tide secondary out of the gate. Ewers began the game 9-for-12 for 134 yards, leading a field goal drive on the Horns' first possession, then using a 46-yard bomb to Xavier Worthy to set up a game-tying touchdown early in the second quarter. Unfortunately, he wasn't in the game by the time of the touchdown, having suffered a sprained collarbone after a hit from Bama's Dallas Turner. Hudson Card would lead a trio of field goal drives, and it was almost, but not quite, enough.
Ewers returned four weeks later and posted his best full-game performance to date, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns in Texas' 49-0 rout of Oklahoma. Against Bama and Oklahoma, he went a combined 4-for-7 on passes of 20-plus yards. With a pretty deep ball and Bijan Robinson's outstanding work in the ground game, Texas' offense looked unstoppable. But then it began stopping itself.
Over the final six games of 2022, Ewers was a ghastly 6-for-32 on those 20-plus-yard passes, with three interceptions and no touchdowns. Easy points disappeared, and receiver drops added up. According to Sports Info Solutions, which categorizes the reasons for a given incompletion, Ewers had the most "receiver at fault" incompletions in the country. Texas receivers dropped 18 passes, a miserable 6.3% drop rate led by Worthy's eight and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders' four. Ewers constantly failed to help himself, too. While he avoided pressure and typically got the ball out of his hands quickly, he also just made poor reads. He was 10th in raw QBR on passes thrown while he was moving and improvising, but he was a dreadful 93rd while planted. Defenses figured out how to fool him. As of mid-October, Ewers ranked sixth in QBR among players with at least 90 dropbacks. From that point forward, he ranked 81st.
You're only going to learn so much against Rice, but what we saw in Saturday's season opener wasn't incredibly encouraging. Ewers threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns, and the Longhorns eventually pulled away for a comfortable 37-10 win. But Ewers' receivers dropped four more passes (Sanders had two, Worthy one), an alarming 13% drop rate. And on passes of 20-plus yards, Ewers went 0-for-7. He scrambled effectively a few times, but he also took three sacks.
Granted, Ewers didn't exactly dominate in last year's season opener against ULM, either, and that didn't hold him back when Bama came to town. Plus, two Bama starters, slot corner Malachi Moore and free safety Jaylen Key, are considered day-to-day with injuries. Expect Ewers to test the Tide's big-play-prevention abilities.
An effective run game would help with that. The Texas running back trio of Jaydon Blue, Jonathon Brooks and CJ Baxter rushed 27 times for 145 yards last week, a decent 5.4 yards per carry. But 32 of those yards came from a single Baxter run, and Texas had a pre-garbage-time success rate (gaining a percentage of necessary yards on a given down) of just 36%. Alabama ranked 64th in rushing success rate allowed last season, and we don't know how much it has improved in that regard -- MTSU barely even tried to run the ball last week. But even if the Tide's run defense remains less than elite, it's probably better than Rice's.
How good is Jalen Milroe?
What we saw from Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe last week was awfully impressive. It was also an incomplete impression.
Milroe ranks 10th in (opponent-adjusted) QBR one week into the season, and he created serious Jalen Hurts flashbacks by combining explosive rushing (five non-sack carries for 64 yards and two touchdowns) with 13-for-18 passing, 194 yards and three more scores. He didn't overdo it with his legs, and he threw a trio of gorgeous deep-ball touchdowns.
Breaking his passing down into a bit more detail, however, you'll see what I mean by "incomplete."
Milroe was 3-for-4 for 124 yards and the three scores on passes 20-plus yards downfield. On passes shorter than 10 yards, he was an efficient 10-for-12 for 70 yards. But in-between, in the oft-important 10-to-19-yard range? He was 0-for-2.
Milroe was Young's backup last season and played an integral role in wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M when Young was hurt. He was both tantalizing and one-dimensional. Not including sacks, he rushed 19 times for 197 yards and a touchdown. He ripped off a 77-yard scramble against Arkansas that showed speed far beyond Hurts'.
He also never flashed Hurts' passing upside. Milroe went 16-for-28 for 176 yards against the Hogs and Aggies and had four touchdown passes. But he also threw an interception and took four sacks against A&M. His one-dimensionality was the main reason he didn't earn the starting job until right before the season. Nick Saban was unsure enough about his quarterback situation that he brought in Notre Dame's Tyler Buchner after spring practice. Saban didn't officially hand the keys to Milroe until the day before the MTSU game.
The run-and-deep-pass combo did more than enough against Middle Tennessee. Bama ranks 10th in rushing success rate after one game, but five Alabama running backs ran 30 times for just 136 yards (4.5 per carry). Efficiency is the No. 1 goal of any run game, but there was no explosiveness to be found outside of a 25-yard Milroe scramble. Texas will likely contain the Bama run game well enough that Milroe will be forced to expand the passing repertoire a bit. Sure, that could work out great for the Tide, but it's something we won't know he can do until he does it.
Current line: Bama -7 | SP+ projection: Bama by 12.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8
Bama remains an obvious favorite here. But if Milroe isn't able to make solid passes when he has to, and if Ewers again saves all his most successful deep balls for the biggest games on the schedule, it won't take many more breaks for the Horns to pull a shocker. They almost did it last year, after all.
Colorado vs. the Hangover Game
Nebraska at No. 22 Colorado (12 p.m., Fox)
It's fitting that, in this ultimate attention-grabbing season for Deion Sanders and his Colorado Buffaloes, Nebraska shows up on the schedule. For most of the successful runs in CU's history, Nebraska was the standard for comparison. In 1971, CU enjoyed its first-ever top-five finish, but still lost by 24 points to maybe the best Nebraska team -- and best college football team -- ever. And when CU reached its program pinnacle, it came via wins over NU. A 27-21 home victory over the No. 3 Huskers helped send Colorado to No. 1 for the first time in 1989, and a 15-point win in Lincoln the next year spurred a late run that earned the Buffaloes a share of their first national title. In 2001, a famous 62-36 romp over No. 2 NU nearly drove Colorado to the BCS championship game despite two losses.
There is so much history in this matchup, so much old. But this CU-NU game is all about new. A year ago, Colorado's Deion Sanders and Nebraska's Matt Rhule were the head coaches for Jackson State and the Carolina Panthers, respectively. Starting quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders and Jeff Sims were at JSU and Georgia Tech. Almost all of Colorado's current roster was anywhere but Boulder.
Last Thursday at Minnesota, Nebraska put together a ferocious defensive performance, holding the Gophers to their fewest yards per play (3.6) since 2017 and nearly pulled a road upset before blowing it at the end and losing 13-10. (The Huskers have somehow lost 14 of their past 16 one-score finishes, which honestly shouldn't be possible.) Two days later, Colorado did them one better against TCU. Sanders threw for 510 yards, mostly to transfers Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver and freshman Dylan Edwards, and the Buffaloes overcame three second-half deficits to pull a 45-42 upset.
Deion Sanders made his share of victory laps as a player, and it's been no different this week as a coach. On Saturday, we'll find out if his Buffs handle life as a favorite as well as they handled the underdog role. We'll also find out if last week's explosive numbers were sustainable, or if they were a perfect storm of a bad TCU defense having no film to analyze. Nebraska will have a pretty solid plan to execute, but Colorado's skill guys might just be too fast.
Current line: Colorado -3 (down from -3.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 8.2 (here's your reminder that it might take SP+ a few more weeks to figure Colorado out) | FPI projection: Nebraska by 3.4
Yulman Stadium's moment has arrived
No. 20 Ole Miss at No. 24 Tulane (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) September 6, 2023A sold out stadium on national TV... Yulman will be rocking on Saturday afternoon!
See y'all there! #RollWave | #NOLABuilt pic.twitter.com/k7GQJ8HZhB
Tulane was supposed to lead off the 2021 season by welcoming No. 2 Oklahoma to town for its nearly 10-year-old, on-campus stadium's moment in the sun, but Hurricane Ida forced the game to Norman and kept the Green Wave out of their home city for weeks. That season predictably fell apart, but Tulane bounced back to go an incredible 12-2 last season, winning its first AAC title and taking down Caleb Williams and USC in the Cotton Bowl.
On Saturday afternoon, Yulman Stadium will welcome both Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels and a sold-out crowd. The Green Wave have yet to beat a power conference team at Yulman (they're 0-3), but they finally beat their first ranked foe in six tries in last December's AAC championship against UCF. They proved against USC that they can win a track meet against a team with an awesome offense, and they proved in last week's 37-17 romp over South Alabama that they have too much athleticism for much of the Group of 5.
This game will tell us a lot about Tulane's ceiling, but it will also hint at what Ole Miss has to offer after another heavy round of transfer signings. The Rebels humiliated a Mercer team with decent FCS ambitions last week, 73-7. Tulane is a huge upgrade over Mercer, but Ole Miss is a big upgrade over South Alabama, too.
Current line: Ole Miss -7.5 (up from -7 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 6.8 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 11.8
Oklahoma: Fool's gold or for real?
SMU at No. 18 Oklahoma (6 p.m., ESPN+)
Everything's coming up SMU at the moment. The Mustangs bought their way into the ACC and began the season with an easy, 24-point win over Louisiana Tech. Head coach Rhett Lashlee brought in quite a few power-conference transfers, and the Mustangs are one of the projected favorites in their final AAC season. This team passes the eye test.
You know who really passed the eye test last week? Brent Venables' Sooners. They scored on their first 10 drives of a 73-0 win over Arkansas State, throwing in a punt return score for good measure. Dillon Gabriel threw for 308 yards in a single half. The Sooners had to consciously try to stop scoring at the end of the game to keep from making it worse. Butch Jones' Red Wolves appear hopeless, but this was an absolute pasting by Oklahoma, one good enough for them to surge to fourth in the FPI and fifth in SP+ this week.
Now OU has to prove itself against a stronger opponent. Can the Sooners' defense, so disappointing in recent years, hold down a speedy SMU attack featuring back L.J. Johnson Jr. (14 carries for 128 yards last week)? Can Gabriel keep dominating against an SMU pass rush that took down Tech quarterback Hank Bachmeier six times? If so, this really might be a top-10-caliber team.
Current line: OU -15.5 (down from -16.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: OU by 20.3 | FPI projection: OU by 20.8
Underachiever Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium
For all we tend to mock the "Texas is BACK!" phenomenon, Texas isn't the only football program we tend to overestimate. In the past four seasons alone, Texas A&M has been ranked 12th or better in the preseason polls and finished unranked three times. Miami has started 16th or better and finished unranked three times in five years. The Aggies began sixth each of the past two seasons and went a combined 13-11!
For both teams, recent underachievement has been defined by quarterback play. The Tyler Van Dyke hype train derailed spectacularly last season, and while the Miami QB was safe and solid in last week's easy win over Miami (Ohio) -- 17-for-22 for 201 yards, a touchdown and an interception -- explosive rushes and a dominant defensive front were the main reasons for the Hurricanes' domination.
A&M's Conner Weigman, however, shined against New Mexico. In his first game under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, the five-star sophom*ore went 18-for-23 for 236 yards and five touchdowns, and he heads into Week 2 ranked No. 1 overall in Total QBR. We've eased into the hype for both of these teams this year (for once), but if one team looks particularly good on Saturday afternoon, that might begin to change.
Current line: A&M -4 | SP+ projection: A&M by 2.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 1.2
My favorite bets
Each week, with heavy assistance from SP+, I share five bets I like the most (or dislike the least, depending on the week). They hit at a solid 55% last year, and we went 3-2 last week. Let's try to stay above .500!
Troy at Kansas State (-16.5) (1 p.m., FS1). The line has moved up from -15.5, which I obviously liked better, but I'll stick with this one because (a) SP+ likes KSU by 19.1, and (b) the Wildcats overachieved projections last week while the Trojans underachieved. Any extra edge here belongs to the home team.
No. 10 Notre Dame (-7.5) at NC State (1 p.m., ABC). NC State has the athleticism to push the Fighting Irish, but the Wolfpack's complete lack of explosiveness against UConn last week, combined with the fact that Huskies backs gained 142 yards on 19 carries, feels foreboding. SP+ says Irish by two touchdowns, and since Notre Dame fans tell me SP+ always hates their team, I have to assume that's a good sign.
Appalachian State at No. 17 North Carolina (-18) (6:15 p.m., ACC Network). I'm wary of App State at the moment. The Mountaineers faded last season, and they trailed Gardner-Webb late in the third quarter last week before turning on the jets. SP+ gives UNC an advantage of 20.2 points, but if the teams wanted to replicate last year's amazing 63-61 track meet, I'll happily take the loss here.
Memphis (-21.5) at Arkansas State (8 p.m., ESPN+). I advise continuing to bet against Arkansas State until we know the Red Wolves have hit rock bottom.
Ohio at Florida Atlantic (-3.5) (7 p.m., ESPN+). The well-traveled Casey Thompson went 20-for-25 for 280 yards and five scores in his FAU debut last week. Granted, it was against Monmouth, and Ohio's defense has overachieved projections so far. But SP+ projects FAU by 10.2, and even if you give Ohio a couple of extra points for the return of quarterback Kurtis Rourke -- the main reason the line has moved from FAU -5 to -3.5 in recent days -- I still lean Owls.
Week 2 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. There is simply far too much going on Saturday evening.
Friday evening
Illinois at Kansas (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Timing is everything. It was January 2014 when Kansas and Illinois announced a home-and-home series for the 2023-24 seasons. At the time of the announcement, the Illini had gone 6-18 over the previous two seasons, and Kansas had gone just 9-39 over the previous four. Both programs would continue mostly struggling in the years to come.
What a ho-hum series, right? Au contraire! Illinois is coming off its best season since 2007, Kansas its best since 2008. The Illini's defense and Kansas' offense are both innovative, must-watch units. This game is so much more exciting than anyone had reason to think it would be when they signed up for it. Perfect Friday night entertainment.
Current line: KU -3 (down from -3.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: KU by 2.0 | FPI projection: Illinois by 3.3
Early Saturday
No. 10 Notre Dame at NC State (12 p.m., ABC). After outscoring two completely outmanned opponents by a combined 98-6, Sam Hartman and Notre Dame get their first genuine test of the season. I think.
Current line: Irish -7.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 14.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 12.3
No. 12 Utah at Baylor (12 p.m., ESPN). Utah QB Cam Rising is supposedly practicing without limitations this week, but Baylor's Blake Shapen is out, and backup Sawyer Robertson made a couple of devastating mistakes late in the Bears' comeback attempt against Texas State. Baylor is facing major burden of proof after last week's upset loss.
Current line: Utah -8 (up from -7 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.9
Troy at No. 15 Kansas State (12 p.m., FS1). Special teams and turnovers were both costly for Troy in a closer-than-expected win over Stephen F. Austin last week. The Trojans will need to drastically shore up the mistakes to have a chance at an upset.
Current line: KSU -16.5 (up from -15.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: KSU by 19.1 | FPI projection: KSU by 20.0
Saturday afternoon
Iowa at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Besides Army-Navy, this might be the only rivalry game for which SP+ spits out a projected 17-17 score, and my first reaction is, "Whoa now, that many points??"
Current line: Iowa -3.5 (down from -4 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 0.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Texas State at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). Texas State is coming off its first win over a power-conference team, and UTSA is needing to rebound after a tight, frustrating loss to Houston. Is this where the Bobcats get their comeuppance after a round of good headlines? Or is this where they completely steal UTSA's thunder and send the Roadrunners into a tailspin? The numbers assume the former, but the numbers didn't see last week coming either.
Current line: UTSA -13 (up from -11 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: UTSA by 18.4 | FPI projection: UTSA by 9.1
Saturday evening
No. 13 Oregon at Texas Tech (7 p.m., Fox). This one obviously lost some luster with Texas Tech's overtime loss at Wyoming last week, but the Red Raiders outgained the Cowboys by 1.3 yards per play and were done in only by a series of (probably unsustainably bad) red zone and special teams miscues. Oregon's awesome but better be ready for a big fight.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 12.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 7.0
No. 19 Wisconsin at Washington State (7:30 p.m., ABC). Wisconsin was solid but unspectacular against Buffalo in its first game with Phil Longo's remodeled offense. The Badgers better raise their game facing a hostile team in a hostile environment.
Current line: Wisconsin -6 (down from -6.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 4.7 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.5
Cincinnati at Pitt (6:30 p.m., The CW). New Cincinnati quarterback Emory Jones looked fantastic against Eastern Kentucky last week. We'll see if we can say the same after he faces what might be the typical awesome Pitt pass rush. Either way, when these two teams play each other, it is an excuse to revisit their matchup from 14 years ago, one of my favorite games of the 21st century.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 (down from -8 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Pitt by 6.3 | FPI projection: Pitt by 3.9
UCF at Boise State (7 p.m., FS1). Is Boise State pretty far down, or is Washington just otherworldly good? Was UCF's particularly resounding blowout of Kent State meaningful or just a sign of how bad the Golden Flashes are? SP+ is all-in on UCF, but Boise's blue field is never particularly welcoming.
Current line: UCF -3.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 15.5 | FPI projection: UCF by 12.0
Arizona at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m., SEC Network). I had to pause for a moment to make sure these two weren't about to be conference mates. Realignment has broken my brain. But this game should be fun, at least.
Current line: MSU -9 (down from -10 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: MSU by 14.8 | FPI projection: MSU by 10.6
Late Saturday
Auburn at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). I honestly might be more excited about this game than any other this week. Historic rivalry? National significance? No. Ridiculous fun with lots of fast guys on offense (and maybe not a ton of defense)? ABSOLUTELY. The spirit of Pac-12 After Dark lives on for a bit longer.
Current line: Auburn -6.5 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 7.5 | FPI projection: Cal by 1.9
Stanford at No. 6 USC (10 p.m., Fox). Stanford's offense showed hints of promise in last week's win over Hawaii, and USC's defense has underachieved projections at least a bit so far. Is that enough to make this a game? Probably not. USC's amazing offense has actually overachieved projections thus far, too.
Current line: USC -29 (down from -29.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: USC by 32.9 | FPI projection: USC by 26.3
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. For schools like Keiser, UMHB and Angelo State, it's Measuring Stick Week at every level of college football!
NAIA: No. 2 Keiser at No. 9 Lindsey Wilson (2 p.m., local streaming). Keiser made a surprising run to the NAIA national title game last year, but over the past three years, the Seahawks have lost three games to LWC by an average of 42-9.
SP+ projection: Keiser by 1.2
Division III: No. 12 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 5 Trinity (Texas) (3 p.m., local streaming). Elite Division III powers rarely lose to the hoi polloi, so it was jarring to see UMHB getting thumped 45-22 by a merely very good Wisconsin-River Falls team last week. Trinity is quite a bit better than UWRF and probably a little bit angry after last week's overtime loss at St. John's.
SP+ projection: Trinity by 7.8
Division II: No. 2 Colorado Mines at No. 6 Angelo State (8 p.m., local streaming). Angelo State went 23-4 over the past two seasons -- 0-2 against Colorado Mines in the playoffs and 23-2 against everyone else. Can the Rams finally get one over on those dastardly Orediggers?
SP+ projection: ASU by 6.5
